1. Conclusions: Bottom-up Global Crisis Analysis
Only a few politicians in the world like Zelensky (Ukraine) or Ardern (New Zealand), understand the universal concept of powerful humanism of Erasmus and others, in the complex context of societies; can scale, and can adapt, with the citizens.
It is only by interacting and showing, that these real leaders see and understand the citizens (Dutch philosopher Johan Cruijff), and can develop accordingly, based on the intelligence of civil sociery, and produce real meaning, with goals, stories and lots of inspirational humor.
2. What Do We See?
Week 8 Denmark 🇩🇰 Omicron #BA2variant
- Less tests done
- Incidence is falling
- Percentage testing positive increasing >30% (NL >66%)
- Admissions hospital and intensive care increasing.
3. What Is the Theory?
Data are shit in a pandemic (complex adaptive system) and remain shit.
Thus, modelling and forecasting for policies as such is false, even useless, and in extremis dangerous, and… as there are better alternatives, not necessary.
Then, April 2021, more than one year in the pandemic;
- since March 21, heavily warned, by ‘@AlleBurgers‘, finally Wallinga/(Van Dissel, OMT) understood that the approach was clearly wrong, and VD starts to mitigate his personal failures
- others, like RedTeam focused on the ‘data’
We promised a bottom-up approach, so let’s continue with the current data.
4. Current Data
In short, and excuses for rude language; Rutte: ‘People may die at home.’ As the balancing act with herdimmunity/IC-occupation is abject, citizens die in yuuuge numbers; today on a weekly basis: 350 RIP.
4.2 Case Data Are Shitty Too
As we see in the whole world, these case data are heavily manipulated by govts, and there are many other practicable problems (self-testing etc)
So what is today the best ‘shitty’ indicator’? Imho, nonetheless, currently ‘development of testpositivity’. And this development is scary in the West.
4.3 Are there Better Indicators, Perhaps even ‘Leading Indicators’?
Not really, although there are better data, to be seen in a holistic context, all ex post: …
4.3.1 … One Is Benchmarking as Such
Global connectivity is the name of the pandemic game; and thus the Law of Large Numbers is driving the pandemic.
Given that “WE are the virus” (which few ppls really understand) and WE are connected, this driving force for the pandemic is a combination of multiplicativity (of connections) and transmissibility (of infections)…
Thus we can compare countries in strategic groups. Think of:
- neigbouring countries: NL, GER, BE, UK, FR
- neoliberal countries with herdimmunity approaches like UK, US, NL, SWE, BRAZ.
- loose (neo-lib) countries versus stringent (dynamic-zero countries): CH, JAP, S-KOR, AUS, NZL
A simple and forceful analysis showing shockingly bad results for Neth on all dimensioms; cases, excess deaths, economy Rutte/OMT. Just cherry picking, with false arguments.
4.3.2 Two Is (Benchmarking of) Surveillance Data
Not understanding exponential growth in the low numbers in a pandemic, NL messed up the surveillance information system, and thus data on new variants, completely.
Koopmans knows. Others have admitted …
When, in summer 2021, delta-case surveillance data were in the very low, we addressed the unstoppable (although not with adequate TTI) exponential curve.
Shouting from the roofs, noone reacted in time.
Even, same summer 2021, NL could have mitigated Delta and could have started a dynamic-zero approach.
Instead, Rutte would like to dance on the vulcano, opened-up much too early with “Dansen met Janssen”.
Slob opened-up schools, based on pseudoscience of Bonten / Bruijning cs of UMCUtrecht schools: no careful downsizing of measures.
5. Destabilisation and Planting Desinformation
Destabilising forces (GBD, Putin) are planting: “Let it rip”, “Learn to live with it”, and today even “Learn to die”.
It is due to Koopman’s minimalisation strategy, resulting from her extremely dangerous gain-of-function research (Chan 21), and hoping it would be mitigated, or end soon.
For her, and us, the citizens, it all turned out differently.
To stop this bullshit I founded Alleburgers, a countervailing force of civil society Other Covid-organisations had a narrow or naive approach of thinking along, were misled, a.o. by Rutte, and OMT.
So, this must stop!
In August 21 we decided to start @alleburgers and were on a weekly basis heavily addressing politicians, cabinet including Rutte, and education organisations with a global-science based approach (@TheWHN).
As children are superspreaders in this 80/20 Pareto Pandemic, our focus was children/schools. Already since January 2021 we pushed science abroad and in Neth.
OMT pushed herdimmunity via children. It suits Rutte’s neo-lib agenda of ‘essential workers’ must work (…and children at school).
However, one outbreak followed the other. Nothing worked. Parliament didn’t move. Neither Minister Slob, nor education organisations..,
… nor Rutte himself.
In November/early December came another chance with Omicron. Same story. With waiting for better information, and schools must be open, Rutte failed again.
We addressed Rutte personally via a letter and a press release. Hardly any reaction. Schools closed a week earlier against stiff-headed minister of education Arie Slob.
Today, our ‘intelligent biomed OMT’ in combination with visionnaire Rutte, lean on pandemic-bad guys, like Shell/AmCham, and are destabilised by Putin (present all over in the pandemic).
Nevertheless we still have chances to mitigate the gigantic damage to civilians, in terms of deaths, economy, freedom, and ilness in particular longcovid.
Still, Netherlands could stop further landscaping for risk by properly mitigating next lineages of Omikron, cq new variants. All starts with children/schools However Rutte choose not to do so…
6. Global Crisis Knowledge
Why follow Rutte’s non-strategy of laissez-faire laissez-passer?
This the story of politics and International Crises, like the Financial Crisis, Climate Crisis, and, as Kasparov presented eloquently, for the Ukraine War cq WW III Crisis.
So much respect for Karpov’s strategic thinking and corresponding game plan for Ukraïne.
Due to their short-term horizon, politicians cannot see global crises coming, and are not prepared for known/unknown system risks.
Cf the great Dutch philosopher Johan Cruijff (we all miss him in these crises);
“What you do not see, you cannot understand.”
However, even then you could have acted properly.
6.1 Covid Crisis and Ukraine War are exactly the same crises!
- Both are geopolitical crises; Destabilization, with desinformation on the concepf of freedom, plays a very big role
- The Western conservative right-wing neoliberal/libertarian politics of those in power, are driven by the international business community. Their think tanks, like Cato Institute, Heritage Foundation, Heartland Institute, Atlas Network/GBD/AIER Brownstone Institute, and many others set the agenda of ‘ideas’ aimed at a withdrawing or destabilised government.
All is more or less based on Ayn Rand’s libertarian concept of freedom.
Compare Partij voor de Vrijheid, Forum voor Democratie with many links to libertarian thinktanks and big destabiliser Putin.
Compare also RedTeam with Koolman publishing with abject Robin Fransman (RIP), and his crazy incoherent gang of flawed economists of HerstelNL, including Baarsma, Jacobs, Teulings, Helsloot, supported by ESB/FD.
It took me almost a year to debunk this group fully. Finally, Professor Arnoud Boot gave them the final blow “Van het padje af, in de mist”.
I saw many other libertarians encircling RedTeam. People like Lex Hoogduin and others. I saw their advise, and I didn’t like it, so I addressed them.
It was too close to the libertarian shit of the think tanks above mentioned and HerstelNL. The RedTeam didn’t saw it. Biomeds and epidemiologists couldn’t recognise it.
The guiding principles of these libertarian think tanks are:
- “Give me a lever and I move the world”
- “The best ideas win”, and finally
- “Money wins”
All you have to know.
6.2 Back to the Ukraine War
Here we meet politician President Zelensky, who really understands these forces of Oligarchs/Big Corps in parallel with politicians and media, shaping a world with desinformation levers, based on money and flawed ideas.
In his historical speech at the start of the war Zelensky holds up a giant mirror to the West! What a clarity compared to the hall of mirrors of Dutch politics, and that of Rutte!
Based on courage, and compassion for the people.
Zelensky’s speech was at exactly the right time with a beautiful universal analysis about the choice of citizens to defend themselves. “We (citizens of Ukraine) don’t want the freedom of a power. We are free. That is our reality.”
Fill in ‘Citizens of the West’ for Zelenky’s ‘Citizens of Russia’ …:
“The reality of power is what you (citizens of Russia) hear on a daily basis; from the merchants of doubt of powers, or from other merchants of doubt …
…and compare, like with Covid, how we are totally disinformed by all these biomeds in the late-night shows, as they cannot scale knowing nothing of the essentials of a global pandemic, while all have their financial- and other agendas
… and think of GPs or an IC-, or hospital bosses, or a hospital epi. They also cannot scale to a global level and backwards to international levels, national levels, community levels etc
… and think of Rutte in parliament; lying, denying with all kinds of false fallacies. Easy to debunk. However, politicians are stuck in the opaque system, and silenced, or do not understand the situation at all.
We are the people, we know, we need a countervailing power from civil society, not political, based on compassion, knowledge and action.
A new way of governance (‘Bestuurscultuur’): Wat Betekent een Nieuwe Bestuurscultuur in de Grootste Wereldwijde Crisis Ooit?
Only a few politicians in the world like Zelensky, understand this universal concept of powerful humanism in the complex context of societies; can scale it, and can adapt to it, for the citizens.
May I mention PM Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand?
It is only by interacting, that these real leaders see and understand the citizens (Cruijff), and can develop, based on the intelligence of civil society, and produce real meaning, with goals, stories and lots of inspirational humor.